Speakerwatch: Dissent Rises

As many predicted, opposition to John Boehner remaining Speaker of the House is growing. Just today, Marlin Stutzman, Dave Brat (who ousted former majority leader Eric Cantor in 2014 primary, and Steve King.

Before now, opposition was the usual suspects of GOP Rebels like Thomas Massie, Louie Gohmert, Ted Yoho and company. The presence of Steve King is a positive sign for dissenters. King (R-IA) is one of the few open dissenters who is not a member of Justin Amash's Liberty Caucus. His move to the opposition signals a potentially stronger rebellion than seen in 2013.

The vote is tomorrow. There are sure to be more House Republicans officially declaring their opposition to Boehner by then, with nine already in the camp. While it may be a small rebellion, it's already appearing to be stronger than the 2013 attempt, bad news for Boehner.

Speakerwatch: A Challenger

With opposition to John Boehner growing daily, the burning question of his replacement has filled the air. The strategy of the opposition in 2013 was not to unite behind any one particular candidate, but simply get enough votes against Boehner to force another ballot.

Ideally, a challenger would eventually arise, Boehner would concede, and there would be a new Speaker. The lack of a figure to unite behind in 2013 may have contributed to the failure of the rebellion.

A challenger has arrived: Louie Gohmert (R-TX) has officially announced his challenge to John Boehner. 

Gohmert is one of the growing contingent of liberty Republicans in the House of Representatives, and a member of the House Liberty Caucus. 

The Speaker election should resemble another attempt by Liberty Republicans: Raul Labrador for Majority Leader. While the past two power struggles were in favor of establishment Republicans, the climate favors the conservatives.

Corporate Welfare in the Mitten State

According to a recent study by the Mercatus Center, the state of Michigan is the fourth heaviest subsidizing state in the United State (only behind Louisiana, Washington, and New York). While some object to the term corporate welfare, it effectively encompasses the broad array of activities the state engages in.

For Michigan, these activities vary from tax-free "enterprise-zones" to tax-free bonds, issued at the behest of the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC). The incentives that drive corporate welfare (concentrated benefits to producers, disperse costs to taxpayers) are not unique to Michigan. What exactly has led to its intensity in Michigan?

The reasons are varied, but Michigan's long history of corruption in the state government certainly contributed. In addition, Mercatus notes that General Motors, Ford, and Dow Chemical all rank in the top twenty companies for subsidies from state governments. Prominent state corporations and a corrupt government? It all adds up.

Speakerwatch

Over the past several days, there have been more and more representatives that have publicly voiced their intention not to vote for John Boehner to retain the Speakership. Several more have hinted at their true feelings. There was, of course, the ultimately fruitless attempt to oust Speaker Boehner in early 2013 (spearheaded by Raul Labrador and Justin Amash), but this attempt seems to be gaining more steam and popular support.

A list of those opposing (or likely to oppose) Boehner follows.

1. Justin Amash (R-MI): One of the most prominent liberty Republicans in the House of Representatives, and one of the few to oppose Boehner in 2013, is almost certain to oppose Boehner. In a recent interview, he had this to say.

"I'm deeply troubled by what I think were some misleading statements by the leadership team about the "cromnibus" and the process that brought it to the floor. I'm not going to put that on Speaker Boehner, but the leadership as a whole. And I want to have these conversations with the speaker before we have the vote for speaker and I haven't made a decision yet about what I'll do, but I need to see that things are moving in the right direction."

While hardly an outright declaration, Amash is likely to oppose.

2. Thomas Massie (R-KY): Massie, a sophomore Republcian, opposed Boehner in 2013, and has again publicly declared his opposition.

3. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK): Bridenstine, who also voted against Boehner previously, has declared his intention to do so again.

There were a total of 9 other Republicans (12 total) who revolted in 2013. 10, including the three above, were re-elected. I've been unable to track down an exhaustive list, but they include 4) Raul Labrador (R-ID), 5) Tim Huelskamp (R-KS), and 6) Walter Jones (R-NC).

More Republicans are likely to officially announce opposition prior to the vote, and many who don't are presumed to oppose Boehner regardless.

Potential Shakeup in House Leadership

The 2014 election cycle was an interesting one, especially for Republicans. The party's victory in the Senate, and a further majority in the House, puts them in a unique situation to effectively move forward their own legislative agenda.

For many conservative members of the party, there is one major detriment to advancing their agenda: The Speaker of the House, John Boehner.

Many have criticized Boehner, allegedly citing his acquiescence to Democrats in Congress, including  many of the more conservative members of the Republican Caucus. Some, including Justin Amash (R-MI) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), have publicly voiced potential support for another Speaker.

The idea isn't as farfetched as it was two years ago. Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary - to Dave Brat, an ideological ally to Boehner's detractors.

If this revolt comes to fruition, the burning question remains: Who would take up the Speaker's gavel?